Abstract

Scenario planning is a widely used methodology for identifying a broad array of risks and opportunities by analyzing and challenging decision-makers’ underlying assumptions. However, in the context of great uncertainty, which scenarios can help managers design effective strategic and financial planning and under what conditions? The paper attempts to answer this question by clarifying the relationship between strategy and planning, scenarios and strategy, and scenarios and plans. Using a representative model, the paper highlights the role of a robust strategy in navigating these complex relationships from both theoretical and managerial perspectives.

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