Abstract

This study aims to analyze causal factors affecting predictive student relationship management for undergraduate student retention using business intelligence. Phase 1 involved identifying key factors influencing retention through document analysis, categorizing them into social, learning, teaching, and student-related factors. Social factors include student community, friendships, communication channels, and organizational culture, which promote engagement, motivation, and perseverance. Learning and teaching factors, such as supportive learning environments, scholarships, instructional design, and structured assignments, impact academic success and retention. Student-related factors, including learning abilities, academic preparedness, goals, and parental support, are essential for persistence. Data was gathered from 1,574 students at Valaya Alongkorn Rajabhat University, with 1,160 usable entries after cleansing. Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) grouped these variables into five components: Student Communication Channels, Academic Proficiency, Parental Guidance, Scholarships, and Organizational Culture. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) validated the model, highlighting well-clustered factors. In Phase 2, a predictive model was developed using stepwise multiple regression, identifying impactful variables, such as note-taking abilities, scholarship counseling, peer communication, and access to advisors. The final model, with an R value of 0.881 and an adjusted R² of 0.777, demonstrated 77.7% predictive accuracy, emphasizing the combined influence of academic support, communication, financial aid, and social integration on student retention. The findings suggest that institutions should prioritize these areas to foster a conducive environment for student success.

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