Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Estimating Implied Volatility in Option Pricing
- Yao Elikem Ayekple
- Charles Kofi Tetteh
- Prince Kwaku Fefemwole
Abstract
Using market covered European call option prices, the Independence Metropolis-Hastings Sampler algorithm for estimating Implied volatility in option pricing was proposed. This algorithm has an acceptance criteria which facilitate accurate approximation of this volatility from an independent path in the Black Scholes Model, from a set of finite data observation from the stock market. Assuming the underlying asset indeed follow the geometric brownian motion, inverted version of the Black Scholes model was used to approximate this Implied Volatility which was not directly seen in the real market: for which the BS model assumes the volatility to be a constant. Moreover, it is demonstrated that, the Implied Volatility from the options market tends to overstate or understate the actual expectation of the market. In addition, a 3-month market Covered European call option data, from 30 different stock companies was acquired from Optionistic.Com, which was used to estimate the Implied volatility. This accurately approximate the actual expectation of the market with low standard errors ranging between 0.0035 to 0.0275.
- Full Text:
PDF
- DOI:10.5539/jmr.v10n6p108
Journal Metrics
- h-index (December 2021): 22
- i10-index (December 2021): 78
- h5-index (December 2021): N/A
- h5-median (December 2021): N/A
( The data was calculated based on Google Scholar Citations. Click Here to Learn More. )
Index
- Academic Journals Database
- ACNP
- Aerospace Database
- BASE (Bielefeld Academic Search Engine)
- Civil Engineering Abstracts
- CNKI Scholar
- COPAC
- DTU Library
- EconPapers
- Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek (EZB)
- EuroPub Database
- Google Scholar
- Harvard Library
- IDEAS
- Infotrieve
- JournalTOCs
- LOCKSS
- MathGuide
- MathSciNet
- MIAR
- PKP Open Archives Harvester
- Publons
- RePEc
- ResearchGate
- Scilit
- SHERPA/RoMEO
- SocioRePEc
- Standard Periodical Directory
- Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB)
- The Keepers Registry
- UCR Library
- Universe Digital Library
- WorldCat
Contact
- Sophia WangEditorial Assistant
- jmr@ccsenet.org