Abstract

The impact of automatic promotion practice on students dropping out of Uganda’s primary education was assessed using propensity score in difference in differences analysis technique. The analysis strategy was instrumental in addressing the selection bias problem, as well as biases arising from common trends over time, and permanent latent differences between the treated and control groups. Probit regression results indicate a negative effect on the probability of students dropping out, but only at P3. There seems to be no policy effect at P6. Decomposing the effect incidence along school location shows the policy as having had an effect only on P3 students studying in urban schools; otherwise, there is no effect among students at P3 rural, P6 rural or P6 Urban. In terms of the gender component, automatic promotion appears to have had an effect on P3 male and female students and no effect on either sex at P6.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.