Insurance Mortality Rates, Performance Indicators, and Possibly Monotonic Population Proportions

  •  John S. J. Hsu    
  •  Thomas Leonard    


Two applications are described of a probability model that can express uncertainty regarding a pre-specified monotonicity hypothesis for binomial proportions. The model also yields a random effects overdispersion formulation where the population proportions definitely satisfy a monotonicity specification. One application concerns an insurance data set recording mortalities of clients from ages 35 to 64. Two new actuarial graduation procedures are developed. The other application derives from a Veterans' administration hospital quality monitor and concerns the failure to return rates for psychiatric patients attending substance abuse clinics. While smoothed performance indicators are proposed, measures of their extra-binomial variation highlight problems experienced by evidence-based approaches when the data are uncontrolled.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
  • ISSN(Print): 1927-7032
  • ISSN(Online): 1927-7040
  • Started: 2012
  • Frequency: bimonthly

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