Spot Natural Gas Prices: A Theoretical Party to Party Bargaining Framework

  •  John Simpson    


Whilst some regional energy markets appear to be integrating, modelling the pricing of natural gas exports in an imperfect global spot market remains a difficult task. For the sake of analysis, this paper proposes the expansion of a theoretical global party to party spot gas price bargaining model to capture lagged daily prices of the major competing fuels and values of a global economic indicator in the world stock market price index. Vector autoregressive based tests provide no evidence of cointegration, however tests of exogeneity show that gas prices and gas price changes are primarily influenced by oil prices and oil price changes. Within this framework, it is found that the oil price and oil price changes are influenced significantly by global stock price index values and index value changes and the coal price index values and index value changes. The model put forward is purely for preliminary analysis but it shows potential. All markets need to become larger, more globally integrated, more informationally efficient and mechanisms to arbitrage the various energy markets would need to be established before a final global gas spot price index is possible.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.