Abstract

Risk is an important factor in crop rotation systems and cropping system management studies. The study uses stochastic simulation techniques and Stochastic Efficiency with Respect to Function (SERF) to evaluate five crop rotations risk-efficiency and economic sustainability in Sudan Gezira Scheme. Price and yield risk for five crops were simulated to calculate whole-scheme net return. The analysis shows with the present irrigation system capacity 4 course rotation is the most preferred at lower (ARAC) and the 5 Course rotation (B) with 53% land use intensity achieve water distribution equity and is the most risk efficient crop rotation at upper (ARAC). It is downside risk oriented and resilience crop rotation. The area allocated in 5 Course rotations (B) for cotton crop is 17%, wheat 7%, sorghum 60%, groundnut 4% and fodder crops 12%. Fodder can be grown two times in summer and winter season without creating water shortage problems. However, this will increase net return and increase soil fertilities within the selected crop rotation. The result also shows that return pack to night storage irrigation system needs a risk premium of 36 Million (SDG). The techniques used in this study could be used with any distribution estimates for the uncertain variables to incorporate new crop varieties and research recommendation packages. They also could be modified to account for new information contribution during the decision process and account for dynamic effects and policy adjustment and modification.

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