Abstract

The Sudan Gezira Scheme stands as one of Africa’s largest and most pivotal irrigated agricultural projects, underpinning Sudan’s economy and food security. The Scheme operation, irrigation and institutional function inconsistent performance were recognized as crucial parts of the project failure. The integrated institutional functional assessment outlined in this research indicates the gap in knowledge and possible system limitations. The study systematically reviews the performance of the scheme’s institutions, with particular emphasis on the integration of physical and functional modernizations within the operational framework. A significant addition to this study is the introduction of innovative historical Institutional Performance Index (IPI), which provides a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of institutional effectiveness and responds over time. The historical HIPI aggregates key metrics —including infrastructure maintenance, water distribution efficiency, governance stability, and stakeholder coordination—collected from archival scheme records data. Technical assessments equations such as DSI, LCI and UEI are formed to trace the evolution of institutional performance capacity from the scheme’s inception 1920s up to the present. The analysis shows deep integration impact of physical deterioration of the current state of infrastructure, maintenance gaps, and functional impact of management reforms such as the transition from government-led operations to farmer-based Water User’s Associations. The assessment highlights challenges arising from climate variability, water scarcity, and financial constraints, as well as the effects of strategic shifts in governance management. Innovation econometrics Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and ECM Models are developed to understand complex integrated institutions’ performance phenomena in Gezira Scheme and generate an innovate applicable solutions. Utilizing data from precision agriculture, the study identifies priority areas for improving water use efficiency, cropping intensity, and long-term financial sustainability. The findings, supported by Historical Institutional Performance Index (HIPI) trends, underscore the critical need for targeted canalization rehabilitation, enhanced functional capacity framework, and real time data-driven resource allocation. Overall, the comprehensive evaluation delivers actionable insights for policymakers and stakeholders enabling them to address operational inefficiencies, adapt to changing environmental and economic conditions, and strengthen institutional resilience framework policy for the future. The empirical finding of long-term evaluation of institutional performance demonstrates that sustainable irrigation management framework requires more than hydrological planning. It demands coherent institutions, rehabilitated infrastructure, digital transformation, and governance control systems that align incentives with responsibilities. The study recommends establishing demand‑drive baseline water allocation to farmers and reduce heterogeneity and inequality through enhancing digital water distribution efficiency and increasing farmers income. The study confirms institutional behavior plays a central role in Scheme operation efficiency through integration physical and functional modernization framework and amplified results. A magnitude like –0.4 to –0.6 would mean 40–60% of disequilibrium is corrected each year, indicating meaningful institutional responsiveness.

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