Abstract

Summary. - Ask-Standard-Predictor (ASP) surveys high-risk adults/youth before high-risk/self-harm [assessing risk management (ARM)]; 2,722 (1,595 adults, 1,127 youth) followed (in court, hospital, physician, school records) for 3-12-years, analyzed with robust, statistical methods (in-bag, out-of-bag, cross-validation, Shao’s bootstrapped, logistic-regressions), resulting in:: (a) predictive-accuracy [area-under-curve (AUC) = 0.99, adults, AUC = 0.91, youth, AUC = 0.96, combined]; (b) internal-consistency [Cronbach’s α = 0.61–0.62]; (c) test-retest-reliability [r_tt = 0.75–0.76]; (d) convergent-divergent-validity (ability, achievement, perception, personality tests); (e) replicated-sensitivity- specificity [96-97%]. Predictors are valid across many populations [including 311,599 targeted, Chicago youth, receiving jobs, mentors, and anger-training, over 17-years, saving $3.6B-$5.3B, 1,242 homicides, 46% less shootings, and 77 fewer violent-youth-crimes] in “1-Chicago-Youth-Summer-Jobs-Program.” ASP is an extension of 95-year-probation-parole-decision-making-tests, allowing lowering high-risk by targeting scientifically-proven, cost-effective treatments. ASP and MMPI-2/A have the same”7-point-high-risk-profile” for youth, adults, males, females, homicidal, mass-murdering, serial-killing, sex-offending, suicide-completers, and overdosing, namely: 1-violence, 2-deception, 3-depression, 4-antisocial-behavior, 5-paranoid-ideation, 6-schizophrenic-thinking, 7-addiction-alcoholism.

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