Negative Binomial Regression Model for Road Crash Severity Prediction

  •  Hana Naghawi    


In this paper, the Negative Binominal Regression (NBR) technique was used to develop crash severity prediction model in Jordan. The primary crash data needed were obtained from Jordan Traffic Institute for the year 2014. The collected data included number and severity of crashes. The data were organized into eight crash contributing factors including: age, age and gender, drivers’ faults, environmental factors, crash time, roadway defects and vehicle defects. First of all, descriptive analysis of the crash contributing factors was done to identify and quantify factors affecting crash severity, then the NBR technique using R-statistic software was used for the development of the crash prediction model that linked crash severities to the identified factors. The NBR model results indicated that severe crashes decreased significantly as the age of both male and female drivers increased. They significantly decreased as the environmental conditions improved. In addition, sever crashes were significantly higher during weekdays than weekends and in the morning than in the evening. The results also indicated that sever crashes significantly increased as drivers have faults while driving. In addition, mirror and brake deficits were found to be the only factors among all possible vehicle deficits factors that contributed significantly to severe crashes. Finally, it was found that the results of the NBR model are in agreement with the descriptive analysis of the crash contributing factors.

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