Abstract

In order to accurately describe and predict the intensity of the typhoon storm surge, the paper builds up Poisson—Maximum Entropy Compound Extreme Value Distribution model, and estimates the return period of typhoon  storm surge on the basis of observed samples from main storm surge processes in a certain observation station of QingDao from 1963 to 1989. The conclusion verified that the calculating result of new model is similar to other models, but it is relatively stable and can overcome the shortcomings of the traditional methods in the situation of lack of observed material.

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