Trailing and Projecting the Real Population of Bangkok to 2030

  •  Chanon Suwanmontri    
  •  Hiroyuki Kawashima    


Due to imbalanced supplies of medical and healthcare resources between the capital city and other areas, Bangkok attracts its non-residents to access hospitals in the city only for giving births. This causes overestimation of Bangkok’s fertility rate and affects results of population projection. Therefore, this paper aims to project real Bangkok population numbers by age group and sex to 2030 by eliminating the influence of Bangkok-born outsiders. It introduces a new fertility rate calculation based on data from National Statistical Office of Thailand. The results show that in 2010 the total fertility rate of Bangkok was merely 0.8. All components being fixed, the projection displays shifts in population age structure, the age group with highest numbers from 25-34 years old in 2010 to 40-44 years old in 2030. Percent aging population expands from 9.6 to 22.6 percent. Furthermore, proportion of population aged 0-14 shrinks from 12.8 percent to 9.6 percent, which means Bangkok in 2030 is expected to face a seriously low number of young populations in opposite to its large number of elderly.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.