Abstract

It is not known whether impacts of climate change may grow so intense as to threaten permanently the economic sustainability of countries. In this article, the mid-term impact of climate change was modeled for countries ranked amongst the most vulnerable to climate change. The Gross National Income (GNI) growth rates of three countries highly vulnerable to climate change (Pakistan, Somalia and Burkina Faso) were compared with expected economic losses from disasters, using a dataset that spanned from 1980 to 2010. It was found, in average, that GNI have doubled each decade, while economic losses to disaster have doubled every three decades. The results suggest that the impact is likely to be smaller in the future than it is now, as long as growth rates of both GNI and climate-related losses are maintained. Given the current scenario, localized regions and economies are the ones that seem to be most likely to be affected by climate change.

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