Abstract

Fast growing economy of Sri Lanka with an annual GDP growth rate of 5% has significantly increased demand for energy. As energy supply must grow in a sustainable way to meet the demand, concern over the environmental impact of energy flows have been gaining attention during policy development and implementation. Therefore, there is a need of comprehensively evaluating energy metabolic system in Sri Lanka to identify resource dependencies of the country that must be addressed to increase the sustainability.

A conceptual energy metabolic model was developed identifying economic, social and demographic variables affecting energy demand, transformation and supply and GHG emissions in Sri Lanka. Developed model was used to evaluate the current energy flows and forecast the behaviour of energy metabolism while assessing the sustainability of the energy system using number of sustainability indicators.

Developed model indicates an average annual growth rate of 4.06% in energy demand, 4.17% in non-renewable energy supply and 3.36% in GHG emissions. Transport sector has the highest GHG emissions percentage of 73%. Sustainability evaluation of the energy metabolic system shows that Sri Lanka is becoming more efficient and less energy intensive over the years. However, increase in GHG emissions per capita and emission intensity has a negative impact on the environmental sustainability while increase renewable energy share in total energy supply can be considered positive. The findings of the research give new insights to the energy system of Sri Lanka which enable energy planners to implement policies to transition towards a more secure and sustainable energy system.

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