Abstract

In this paper an effort has been made to develop a statistical model for wheat production in the Punjab, Pakistan. All the variables that have either light or strong impact on the yield of wheat, surveyed by Agriculture Department and Meteorological Department, Punjab, have been taken under consideration. The proposed model is independent of time binding and gives a good estimate of wheat production by using all the inputs of the crop in a particular season. A new concept of weighted rainfalls has been incorporated in the model and a detailed comparative study between actual total and weighted rainfalls has been carried out on each divisional and provincial level modeling for the selection of the best acceptable model and to observe the impact of both types of rainfalls on the quality of estimation of yield. The predictive performance of the final selected model has been assessed through various validity tests. For the purpose a data, in hard form, of 25036 cases comprising almost 1.2 million values have been fed and used. The study is very helpful for agricultural planners in respect of the most important staple food of Pakistan. Also many recommendations to farmers can be made about different inputs of the crop.

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