Abstract

This paper analyzed the main impacts on the value of milk production in different regions (Development Councils) of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. For that, we used the structural-differential method known as method Shift Share effects with production, productivity, price of milk and production values. It is relevant to note that, as well as production, the dairy herd and the productivity underwent positive and significant changes in the analyzed period, in both federal and state level. The impact each variable causes on the total amount produced defines whether what is occurring is the use of resources or just an increase in the matrices. The main results show that some Councils, such as Fronteira Oeste, whose price-effect corresponds to in 40.65%, the lowest amongst all and denotes a lower market dependence. The most satisfactory productivity effect occurs in the Sul Council with 48.98%, inferring a higher production efficiency. For the herd effect, the highest matrices growth rate in production were found in the Metropolitano Delta Jacuí Council, with the value of 30.09%. However, for the purpose of value of production, the Rio da Várzea Council obtained the most significant value of 117.94%. Thus, the results enable understanding the bottlenecks and state regional needs in the sector, influencing economic decisions. The effect of the milk price was critical to increasing the value of milk production in the analyzed periods and the productivity effect showed mild effect on the value of milk production. Likewise, the herd effect was found in the analysis to generate less impact than other effects.

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