Determinants of Long-Term Unemployment in Brazil in 2013

  •  Elano Arruda    
  •  Daniel Guimarães    
  •  Ivan Castelar    
  •  Pablo Castelar    


This work analyzes the determinants of the probability of a Brazilian worker being unemployed for more than a year, using data from the 2013 National Household Survey (PNAD) and applying a probit model. The results show a lower chance of remaining jobless of males, heads of households, those who declared themselves black, younger people, those who completed higher education or are in the process of acquiring it, and residents of the Southeast and South regions of Brazil. The probabilistic scenarios show that the Brazilian workers least likely to remain unemployed for over a year are males, residents in the South or Southeast region, heads of a household, between 36 and 45 years of age, with higher education, with only a 0.6% chance of remaining in that condition. On the other hand, the workers with the highest chance of remaining unemployed are females, between 46 and 65 years old, residents in the North region, illiterate and not household heads, with a 41% probability of remaining unemployed.

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