Abstract

The candlestick trading strategy is a very popular technical method to convey the growth and decline of the demand and supply in the financial market. In this paper, we aim to investigate the predictive power of the candlestick two-day patterns, and to determine the key factors to improve performance. The data set of this study includes daily opening, high, low, and closing prices, and daily volumes of all electronic securities in the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1998 and 2007.

The result of this paper indicates that the harami pattern can obtain information about short-term price movements derived from the demand and supply in Taiwan stock market, because the performances from the harami signals are significantly positive overwhelmingly. The main contribution of this study is that it improves these trading strategies with three confirmation factors, that is, the open of the day after a reversal pattern, the changes of real bodies between two days, and the changes in volume. In addition, this is the first time that candlesticks research has employed the Quantile Regression Model.

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