Information Diffusion and the Lead-Lag Relationship between Small and Large Size Portfolios: Evidence from an Emerging Market

  •  Anastassios Drakos    
  •  Panayiotis Diamandis    
  •  Georgios Kouretas    


This paper investigates whether lead-lag patterns exist between small and large size portfolios constructed from stocks traded in an emerging market, the Cyprus Stock Exchange (CSE). We examine this relation in both its short-run by using the correlation-based approach of Lo and MacKinlay (1990) and its long-run by employing the cointegration-based methodology of Kanas and Kouretas (2005). Furthermore, on finding that cointegration exists we then use the estimated error correction models (ECMs) to obtain out-of-sample forecasts of small-firm portfolio returns and it is shown that these ECMs have superior forecasting performance relative to models without the error correction terms. The main finding of our analysis is that a lead-lag effect was established between small and large size portfolios for the Cyprus equity market in both the short-run and the long-run.

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