Evaluation of Default Risk Based on KMV Model for ICBC, CCB and BOC

  •  Feixue Huang    
  •  Yue Sheng    
  •  Zhijie Li    


After the financial crisis, the market capitalization of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China(ICBC), Bank of China(BOC) and China Construction Bank(CCB) rose to the top three global business, fully representative of the China's overall economic growth, while exposure to the banking industry’s high financial risks. In order to identify and compare credit risk of three listed banks, using KMV model calculate default distance of the three banks and then compare default rate: First, use stock data to calculate default point, the default distance, compare the risk of three banks, on this basis analyze financial data of three banks; Finally, identify the reasons for differences of default risk. An Empirical Study of three banks through the second half of 2006 to the end of 2008 stock data and annual information, found that: (1) The risk of three banks have tended to increase, including CCB the highest risk of default; (2) key financial indicators of CCB: non-performing loan ratio, loan-to-deposit ratio, the proportion of non-interest income accounted for revenue are worse than ICBC and BOC, which is reason for CCB risk of default is higher than ICBC and BOC. Suggest CCB adjust loans and reduce non-performing loan ratio; improve asset efficiency and profitability; expand intermediary business to reduce risk.

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