Abstract

The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of variations in crude oil price and the macroeconomic variables of consumer price index, exchange rates and money supply on ASEAN stock market performance. The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is used as the theoretical framework where stock market prices are hypothesized to be fully reflective of all available information and hence could not be forecasted by any macroeconomic variable. Both static and dynamic panel data analysis were used to investigate monthly data from January 1997 to December 2013. Results show that crude oil price and macroeconomic variables have significant leading effect on ASEAN stock market performance, and as such, contradict the validity of EMH in collective ASEAN stock markets.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.