Decay Factor as a Determinant of Forecasting Models

  •  Grzegorz Mentel    
  •  Jacek Brozyna    


The present discussion focuses on the significance of historical observations which affect current market situations, and consequently impact short term forecasts. The main purpose of the study is to verify the level of importance and perform ranking of information necessary for estimating Value at Risk. Hence, effectiveness of VaR estimates was assessed in the context of volatility modeling by means of exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA), relative to various levels of decay factor l.

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