Abstract

In this novel study, I investigate whether option implied volatility and implied volatility skew contain information capable of elucidating, in an ex-ante manner, the probability of exceptional foreign exchange price fluctuations. I study four of the most widely traded currency pairs and their corresponding options over varying option maturities and distinct definitions of volatility skew and price jumps, each over the period 1 Jan 2007 to 18 November 2013. I find significant evidence of such informational content in at-the-money implied volatility, implied volatility skew and currency forward premium, each with differing degrees of influence. Further, as opposed to results in existing literature on price jumps within the equity asset class, the ability of volatility skew to predict price jumps does not attenuate with an increasing option maturity up to three months. I also observe through probit marginal analysis how at-the-money implied volatility dominates in its influence of price jump probability, while currency carry and implied volatility skew hold smaller but nonetheless significant influence.

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