Abstract

This study examines the influence of imports and exports of beef products on Tajikistan’s domestic market. Data from reputable sources covering the period 1999-2019, including the World Bank, Federal Bureau of Statistics, and International Financial Statistics, are utilized. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger causality methodology are employed to analyze the relationship between beef product imports, exports, their determinants, and the domestic market. The empirical analysis reveals that macroeconomic variables (GDP, foreign direct investment, inflation, and beef production) and the openness of the economy play a crucial role in determining the impact of imports and exports on Tajikistan’s domestic market. E-views and Stata software are used for data analysis. The findings indicate that Tajikistan imports more beef products than it exports, demonstrating a growing reliance on imported beef over the 1999-2019 period, implying a lack of competitive domestic beef production. Additionally, excessive beef exports can negatively affect domestic production and the economy. To ensure stability and sustainable economic growth, policy measures are recommended. These include implementing import tariffs to protect local producers, providing subsidies and support programs to enhance domestic production, and strategic planning to meet domestic beef demand before considering exports. By adopting these measures, Tajikistan can achieve a balanced and prosperous domestic market. These findings underscore the importance of considering the impact of beef imports and exports and implementing appropriate policies and regulations to promote a thriving domestic market.

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