Forecasting Oil Prices: A Comparative Study


  •  Jihad El Hokayem    
  •  Joseph Gemayel    
  •  Dany Mezher    

Abstract

Oil prices have been a major concern for many policy makers, businesses and individuals throughout the years. The spillover of inflation, which is at its highest level since several decades, due to the supply chain problems and spike in energy prices, following the war between Russia and Ukraine pushed oil and gas under the spotlight recognizing its crucial role. In turn, this has imposed many challenges on numerous countries across regions building up feelings of fear and anxiety amid serious concerns about energy and food security. Forecasting oil prices is still a major challenge as it is stimulated by various influencers. With the availability of numerous techniques to forecast oil prices, this study aims to compare the Vector Autoregression (VAR), Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models in forecasting oil prices.



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