Abstract

This paper investigates the performance of forecasting models for default risk referring to the annual balance sheet information of Italian firms. One of the main issues in bankruptcy predictions is related to the selection of the best set of indicators. Therefore, our main research question concerns the identification of the determinants of corporate financial distress, comparing the performance of innovative selection techniques. Furthermore, several aspects related to the default risk analysis have been considered, namely the nature of the numerical information and the sample design. The proposed models take in consideration the above-mentioned issues and the empirical results, elaborated on a data set of financial indices expressly derived from annual reports of the industrial firms. These reports provide evidence in favor of our proposal over the traditional ones.

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