Abstract

Global climate change has increased systemic risks for grain-producing households. It has led to fluctuations in corn yields and prices, which threaten the stability of farmers’ incomes. China has developed an innovative agricultural risk management mechanism through the ‘insurance plus futures’ model, which transfers farmers’ income risks to the futures market. However, existing agricultural income insurance programs face major challenges, including the absence of standardized yield and price data and inefficiencies in risk pricing. This paper develops an income-insurance pricing model that integrates Copula functions with Asian options. The model relaxes the traditional assumption of risk independence and mitigates the impact of short-term price volatility on insurance payouts. Empirical analysis based on the 2024 corn “insurance plus futures” project in Da’an City, Jilin Province, shows that the proposed model strengthens agricultural risk protection, optimizes premium rate design, and improves product sustainability. The findings offer methodological innovation for improving China’s policy-based agricultural insurance system.

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