Algorithmization of Ecologo-Economic Risk-Management in Urban Areas

  •  A. D. Murzin    


The article is devoted to the development of scientific approach to the problem of rationalizing the mutualinfluence of natural and economic relations elements which exist within the boundaries of urban (city)environment. The phenomenon of ecological and economic interaction is of particular relevance in terms ofsustainable development concept, which determines the necessity of present needs satisfaction without anytrouble for the future generations. The level of risk is the main quantitative indicator of the sustainabledevelopment degree. The author makes an effort in analysis and management of ecological-economic riskalgorithmization. To this aim, the concept of ecological and economic risk is clarified, there is shown the generalclassification, the standard approach to quantitative risk assessment is considered, the features of analysis andevaluation of the risk level are studied. There is a general algorithm for management of ecological and economicrisk, that consists of a number of analysis and assessments. The first block includes the steps of riskidentification, or the definition of events that might cause ecological and economic damage of the probability ofadverse events, or the possibility of determining the risk situation for a certain period, determining the structureof possible damage, or analysis of the results of adverse events, identifying the distribution system of damage, orthe analysis of patterns of spread of the probability of damage to the same objects with similar adverseconditions, risk assessment, or, determination of quantitative characteristics (integral estimates) of risk measure.The second block includes the steps of evaluating the effectiveness of the risk response methods to avoid it, toreduce or transfer risks; the choice of the most appropriate ways to influence the risk, or, the definition of a listof specific control measures, monitoring progress in the implementation of risk control, or monitoring the stateof the environment and the potential sources of danger. In conclusion, according to the results of the assessmentof environmental and economic risk, it is given an example of management analysis of the territory ofRostov-on-Don.

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