Methodological Specifics of Forecasting the Development of the Industrial Sector of a Region’s Economy Factoring in the Impact of Shock “Impulses” on It (through the Example of the Republic of Tatarstan)

  •  Marat Rashitovich Safiullin    
  •  Leonid Alekseevich Elshin    
  •  Mariya Igorevna Prygunova    


Present-day economic conditions are characterized by a high level of integration and interpenetration betweennational economic systems. This, in turn, determines the way economic relations that form as a result of theimpact of not just internal but external “impulses” on them are to be coordinated and will be operating. The latterare formed, for instance, as a result of overcoming trade barriers in interstate relations or, on the contrary, as aresult of restrictions imposed in relation to access to external resources and markets. There are two aspects thatimpart particular relevance to the processes of generating external impulses. Firstly, Russia’s entry into theWorld Trade Organization (WTO) in 2012 determined a whole spectrum of dimensions for the development andtransformation of trade-economic processes (garnering better, compared with existing, and non-discriminatoryconditions for the access of Russian products to foreign markets; creating a more favorable climate for foreigninvestment as a result of bringing the legislative system in line with WTO norms, etc.) (Gafurov, Safiullin, &Safiullin, 2012). Secondly, tensions building over the last several months between the Russian Federation and aparticular segment of the global community are generating a number of serious risks associated with a set ofinstitutional and market restrictions, which are directly or indirectly affecting the development of the industrialand financial sectors of the national and, consequently, regional economic systems.

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