Abstract

Rapid urbanization and its negative impact have become major challenges for planners and policy makers especially in the developing nations. Urbanization is not a problem of its own but, when drastic increase of urban population occurs especially in the countries that lack resources and personnel to deal with it. In Malaysia, for example, urban population has reached > 72% and is expected to become 75% by 2020. This paper aims to bridge such knowledge gap by describing the development of spatial model of urban spatial growth. A statistical technique, discriminated analysis was used to develop the model which could differentiate urban and non-urban land. Eight spatial variables were used to develop the model. Three sets of land use data namely land use 1990, 2001 and 2009 were used in model development and validation. The model managed to accurately predicted 68.4% of built-up areas in 2001 and 68.0% of built-up areas in 2009. This model was then used to predict urban spatial growth of 2020. The result obtained from this model could potentially be used in investigating areas likely to experience urban expansion at the expense of other. This output might be useful for planners and decision makers to formulate rational policy that sustaining urbanization and control its unplanned growth.

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