A Dynamic Analysis of Influencing Factors in Price Fluctuation of Live Pigs --- Based on Statistical Data in Sichuan Province, China

  •  Hua Wu    
  •  Yanbin Qi    
  •  Diqin Chen    


Based on the weekly price data about supervision on the “early warning system of live pig production in Sichuan Province”, this article made a dynamic analysis in the research objects of live pig price, corn price, piglet price and pork retail price, including cointegration relationship test, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis so as to analyze the long term and short term conduction effects among different variables within the system of live pig system. It was discovered from the cointegration analysis that, the conintegration relationship existed within the live pig price system in Sichuan Province. In the long run, influence of piglet price on price fluctuation of live pig price was greater than that of corn price. The opposite is true to the short run. It was discovered through Granger test that, within a single production cycle (4 to 6 months), the piglet price, corn price and pork price affected the live pig price under Granger significance, while corn price and piglet price were exogenous to the system. It was discovered through the impulse response analysis that within a single production cycle, impact of the live pig price on price fluctuation of piglet manifested a “positive-negative-positive” response, mostly a “negative” response on price fluctuation of pork and mostly a “positive” response on price fluctuation of corn price. Finally, the authors put forward suggestions of decomposition of interest of the live pig industrial chain and escalation of value, etc.

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