Abstract

Since January 2020, the global novel coronavirus epidemic (referred to as the epidemic) has raged. Countries around the world have "suspended" most economic activities in order to prevent the spread of the epidemic. As a result, the global supply chain is severely disrupted, causing global inflation to rise. Freight rates on the trans-Pacific route from North America to the Asia-Pacific region continued to skyrocket, surcharge items increased, and delivery events were extended. Based on the analysis of the current situation of the impact on the trans-Pacific supply chain, the paper uses the data of the growth rate of Sino-US trade volume as a "pay off" sample to establish a supply-demand game model for container liners on the trans-Pacific route under the background of the epidemic. Under the dynamic assumption of incomplete information, a Bayesian refined Nash equilibrium is obtained. Finally, the paper uses the Bayesian refined Nash equilibrium model to analyze the trend of container liner shipping rates on trans-Pacific routes under the background of the epidemic.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.