Abstract

The dry bulk market BDI index fell from 11,793 points on May 20, 2008 to 290 points on February 10, 2016, which is a very certain "downward cycle" of the shipping market, showing an "L" shape. By citing random samples and big data, the paper analyzes the causes of the "L" type cycle. First, through random sample data, a binary measurement model with BDI index as the dependent variable and dry bulk market supply and demand as independent variables is established, and it is concluded that the "down cycle" of the dry bulk market is caused by the "supply factor"; then the paper continues to quote big data, that is, to use "whole sample" to further analyze the sub-variables of supply variables. Finally, the paper concludes that the "downward cycle" of the dry bulk shipping market is "L" shaped, which is caused by changes in the "market structure" of the shipbuilding market.

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