Abstract

Up to 2019, tropical rainforests in East Kalimantan has been experiencing very rapid degradation and continues to shrink. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate mapping and analysis of factors affecting the productivity of tropical rain forests in East Kalimantan. The purpose of this study was to determine the factors that cause shrinkage of tropical rainforests in East Kalimantan based on spatial statistical perspectives. The data used were secondary data from the Indonesian Ministry of Forestry and the Central Bureau of Statistics. The data consisted of 10 districts/cities from East Kalimantan Province. Those data were influenced by spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity. Nonparametric Geospatial Regression (NGR) is one of the spatial statistical methods used to overcome spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity. The results of the study obtained was a Nonparametric Geospatial Regression modeling using the Gaussian Kernel geographical weighting function with a minimum CV value of 1.48. The model had R² values for each district/city ranging from 74.39% - 88.65%.  The goodness of fit of the NGR model was shown by the value of R² = 0.8865, which stated that the variables that significantly affect the preservation of tropical rainforest by 88.65%  were the area of protected forests, nature reserves and nature preservation, production forests, area of each district/city, economic growth rate and regional development index.

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