Long Run Relationship between Selected Macroeconomic Indicators and Banking Sector in Pakistan

Javed Pervaiz, Teng Jian-Zhou, Junaid Masih


The study investigated the long run relationship between selected macroeconomic indicators and banking sector index in Pakistan. The selected macroeconomic indicators are Exports, Industrial Production, CPI, and KIBOR as short-term interest rate, Money Supply (M0), Nominal Exchange Rate between Pakistan and United States of America (USA), Oil Prices and the Interest rate on Pakistan Government bond ten years, as the long-term interest rate. Monthly time series was used from January 2009 to August 2015. The study applied Augmented Dickey-Fuller test to determine the stationarity levels for the selected macroeconomic indicators and banking sector index, Phillips-Perron test to validate the results of Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, a bound testing technique in ARDL model to investigate the long run relationship between selected macroeconomic variables and banking sector index. Results suggested the presence of a long-run relationship between macroeconomic variables exchange rate, inflation, oil price and banking sector index in Pakistan. Results of Granger causality test suggested unidirectional causality running from macroeconomic variables KIBOR and oil prices to banking sector index in Pakistan. Further, unidirectional causality was found running from banking sector index to government bond in Pakistan.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v10n2p67

Copyright (c) 2018 Javed Pervaiz, Teng Jian-Zhou, junaid masih

License URL: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

International Journal of Economics and Finance  ISSN  1916-971X (Print) ISSN  1916-9728 (Online)  Email: ijef@ccsenet.org

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