The Macroeconomic Policy Effect on Nigerian Agricultural Performance: One-Step Dynamic Forecasting Analysis

Ernest Simeon Odior


This study attempted to examines the consequences of macroeconomic policy indicators on agricultural performance in Nigeria. The data set for this study consists of annual time series from 1970–2012. The study employ a one-step dynamic forecast model to analysis the nature of this impact. To ensure stationarity of the data, the study uses the individual root of Im, Pesaran and Shin unit root test. The result showed that real monetary aggregate, technological change introduced overtime and pass level of agricultural sector performance play a crucial role in affecting the agricultural gross domestic product in Nigeria. It is found that credit to agricultural sector and government expenditure on agriculture has less significant impact on agricultural performance. These findings support the growing view that revealed that the changes of macroeconomic policy instruments had substantial effect on the agricultural sector. It was recommended that policies should be designed to ensure high performance in the agricultural sector attract little or no interest and future favourable policies on agricultural development should be streamlined and implemented coherently.

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International Journal of Economics and Finance  ISSN  1916-971X (Print) ISSN  1916-9728 (Online)

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