Investigating Causal Relations between the GDP Cycle and Unemployment: Data from Finland

A. Khalik Salman, Ghazi Shukur


This paper investigates the causal relationship between two macroeconomic variables, the gross domestic product (GDP) cycle and unemployment, in Finland. This has been done using the vector autoregressive (VAR) model for the period Q1 1995 to Q2 2011. The goal of this study is to gather further evidence for the relationship between the GDP cycle and total, male and female unemployment individually, with special reference to Finland which is a member state of the EU, and has been part of European monetary union, since 1995. The relationship has been investigated using the Granger-causality test in accordance with Okun’s (1962) formula. The empirical facts mostly indicate the existence of a uni-directional causal relationship from the GDP cycle to unemployment. This pattern is not found to be significant when using the model for unemployment in women however. The coefficients of unemployment, total, male and female, are abstracted from the Okun’s coefficient and found to be around -4 per cent total, male and female unemployment individually, -5 per cent and -1 per cent respectively. These results also have important implications for determining macroeconomic and labor-market policy.

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International Journal of Economics and Finance  ISSN  1916-971X (Print) ISSN  1916-9728 (Online)

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