Housing Starts, Forecaster Herding, and the Livingston Survey

Abstract

Recent research shows that forecasts of housing starts provide evidence of forecaster anti-herding. Because this result is in contrast to the widespread belief that forecasters herd, we reexamined the question of forecaster anti-herding using data from the Livingston Survey. Using a novel empirical test developed by Bernhardt et al. (2006, Journal of Financial Economics, 80, 657-67), we found strong evidence that forecasters of U.S. housing starts anti-herd.