Will a New Little Ice Age Begin in the Next Few Decades?

Maxim Gennadievich Ogurtsov, Markus Lindholm, Risto Jalkanen


Recently, Abdussamatov (2012) claimed that a period of deep (>1.0 oC) global cooling–a new Little Ice Age–will begin soon. The question of future climate variability is not merely of scientific interest but of huge significance for the wellbeing of mankind. We examine here in detail the statements of Abdussamatov (2012), which have received appreciable response in the popular media. We revealed that the prediction of a significant drop in global temperature in the next few decades has poor scientific basis. We conclude that this cooling projection is based on: (a) a number of either arbitrary or erroneous assumptions, (b) lack or ignorance of experimental data, (c) and a more or less flawed forecasting technique. Possible scenarios of future climatic variation are discussed.

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/apr.v5n3p70

Applied Physics Research   ISSN 1916-9639 (Print)   ISSN 1916-9647 (Online)

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