Identification of Factors Influential in Policy Making and Presenting a Combined Model of Iran ’ s Policy-Making

Modeling is a modern concept that enables the audience to analyze and understand components. Policy making models can describe complexity of what happening in real world in a simple and conceivable form. These models are considered as tools for clarifying thinking about policies and each one examines this issue with a special approach and from a specific point of view. In this article, it is attempted to present the most prominent policy making models collected by library study method, their effective factors are identified and the combined model of policy making in Iran is obtained based on relationships between these factors by interpretive structural modeling method using views of the experts. The results illustrates that the Cost-benefit analysis, political currents in society, previous decisions and social influence and power are the most influential factors in policy making.


Introduction
No decision maker makes decision in vacuum.A decision usually appears through a complex environment in which many factors are involved.As Donald K. Hansen states: "decision makers (especially at national level) are in a very complex environment that encounters many obstacles including international law, various regulations, institutions and ideologies.Even if these factors are not considered so much as obstacles, a policy maker encounters issues like bureaucracy, influential figures, media, parliament and cognitive limitations".David Brooks states: "a policy maker has general goals in mind but unknown path ahead in which everything is obscure" (Edwards, 1996).Determination of priorities and distinguishing between optimal and satisfactory results is sometimes very challenging and how it must be addressed varies with each particular case.
Modeling is a modern word that enables audience to analyze and understand components.Policy making models can describe complexity of what happening in real world in a simple and conceivable form.These models are considered tools for clarifying thinking about policies and each one examines this issue from a specific point of view (Boer et al., 2011).These models also can be effective in identification of the following factors: identification of the most important aspects of policies, concentrating on obvious characteristics of political thought, drawing a distinction between important and unimportant events in policy making process, describing policies and predicting their results (Cockrel, 2002).Some of these models have rationalism approach (from totally rational to combined models) and others follow realism approach (Gholipour, 2008), that in fact indicates attitude and logic of decision makers.
As mentioned earlier, each proposed model addresses policy making concept from a specific aspect and particular point of view.In order to make these models more applicable in general policy makings of country, this articles tries to review the most important models proposed in policy making area, identify the most www.ccsenimportant Regime.which have geographical similarities to Iran.It is important in many areas of public service to understand the importance of factors such as settlement patterns and population density in determining what types of provision are appropriate and where we might learn lessons from elsewhere.When looking at international comparators, it is important to do so objectively.Officially published material tells the story which the promoters of a policy or project wish to tell publicly.It is important to explore beyond that: to find out what criticisms are made as well as ways in which arrangements are successful; to find out the views of service users as well as providers; to find out the extent to which a policy has actually achieved its intended outcome and whether there have been any unintended or unforeseen drawbacks or benefits; Face-to-face contact will reveal more than looking at a website alone, but given the costs associated with study visits, it is essential to do adequate research in advance to be sure that a comparator is really relevant (Office of First Minister and Deputy of First Minister in Northern Ireland, 2003).

Research Methodology
In this research, the most important factors effective in policy making models are determined by library studies.Then 11 elites were asked about these factors through questionnaire and two more factors were added according to their view about policy making in Iran.This way, the ninth factor is called "bases and principle" which suggests belief and value bases and expediencies of Islamic Republic System.The tenth factor is "top documents and laws".
After specification of ten factors mentioned, effective factors in policy making of Iran were structured using "interpretive structural equations" method and elites' views.
Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) is a well-established methodology for identifying relationships among specific items, which define a problem or an issue.For any complex problem under consideration, a number of factors may be related to an issue or problem.However, the direct and indirect relationships between the factors describe the situation far more accurately than the individual factor taken into isolation.Therefore, ISM develops insights into collective understandings of these relationships.ISM starts with an identification of variables, which are relevant to the problem or issue, and then extends with a group problem solving technique.Then a contextually relevant subordinate relation is chosen (Attri, Dev, & Sharma, 2013).Having decided on the element set and the contextual relation, a structural self-interaction matrix (SSIM) is developed based on pair wise comparison of variables.In the next step, the SSIM is converted into a reachability matrix (RM) and its transitivity is checked.Once transitivity embedding is complete, a matrix model is obtained.Then, the partitioning of the elements and an extraction of the structural model called ISM is derived (Agarwal, Shankar, & Tiwari, 2006).In this approach, a systematic application of some elementary notions of graph theory is used in such a way that theoretical, conceptual and computational leverage are exploited to explain the complex pattern of contextual relationship among a set of variables.ISM is intended for use when desired to utilize systematic and logical thinking to approach a complex issue under consideration (Ravi, Shankar, & Tiwari, 2005).The concept of Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) was primary introduced by J. Warfield in 1973.Warfield proposed ISM due to evaluate the complex socioeconomic systems (Gorvett & Liu, 2007).Sage (1997) stated that ISM approach facilitates to compel classification and direction on the complex relationships among components of a complexity of relationships among elements of a socioeconomic system.Moreover Singh and Kant (2008) interpreted the words of Interpretive Structural Modeling.According to them, ISM is interpretive as based on group's judgment and decision whether and how the system's elements are linked.Azar (2012) believed that Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) approach is a method of structuring known elements.In this approach, which is in interpretive paradigm, elements are listed and structured based on elite's views.It is assumed that views of elite groups about connections between elements are basis of modeling of system or problem and have necessary validity and reliability.In this method, elite group includes 10 to 15 elites.So, in this research, 11 University professors and scholars of policy making were identified and their views were used.

Analysis
Using concept of "lead to" or "effective on", factors were assessed two by two and "structural self-interaction" matrix is formed based on the following symbols: V: element i influences element j.
A: element j influences element i.Based on this model, element "bases and principle" is expressed at first level as a factor that influences all factors but is not influenced by any factor.At next level, we have "cost-benefit analysis", "top documents and laws", "external factors", "political currents", "social influence and power" and "previous policies" all of which have interconnections with each other which means that each of these factors influences others and is influenced by others.At next level, we only have "decision maker organizations" that is influenced by all factors of the former two levels.Finally, the last level includes two factors "policy making process" and "problem and need" that are influenced by all factors of former levels and influence each other.For simplifying this model, effect of each level on next level is presented only by direct connection of the two factors but, since elements of the second and fourth levels influence each other, all of effects can be observed by indirect connection.

Conclusions
The most important factors effective in policy making models can be identified by evaluating these models.However, policy making conditions in Iran is also influenced by Islamic, value and belief principles such as Velayat-e-Faghih, seeking justice etc. as well as governmental principles such as fighting colonialism and dictatorship.These factors make decision making conditions of Iran radically different from common systems of world.Considering this unique characteristic and necessity of a comprehensive evaluation of this issue and in order to increase applicability of proposed models, it is attempted in this research to identify effective factors, structure these factors and obtain combined model of policy making in Islamic Republic of Iran.
As literature review indicates, available models approach policy making issue from their own point of views that can be divided into two groups: "focus on decision maker" and "focus on decision making manner".Members of each group evaluate the issue based on a certain aspect.Considering the power and benefits of this approach, as mentioned before, there must be a comprehensive view in this particular area for application in specific cases and this research was an attempt to do so.
In the structural model obtained, policy making is based on principles of Islamic Government.This means that all decisions and policies in Islamic Republic of Iran should be made based on belief, value and governmental principles and do not have any contrast with them under any conditions.In certain conditions after Islamic Revolution in Region and world, environmental and external factors had an important role in decision making and by adapting to principles, are considered one of the most essential factors of decision making in Iran.Cost-benefit analysis, political currents in society (such as epozosion groups etc.), previous decisions, and social influence and power (such as monopoly power, social influence and power groups determine and direct political currents) also influence policy making.These factors are influenced by principles and by each other and at the same time influence other factors.For example, mutual relation of two factors "social influence and power" and "political currents" can be justified as follows: social influence and power determine and direct political currents and, on the other hand, political currents influence and change amount and manner of power and social influence.
At next level, decision maker organizations, such as ministries and councils, are effective in policy making and according to relations obtained, these entities are influenced by all factors of previous levels.Finally, factors of the most influenced level are "policy making processes" and "problem and need" which means that these two factors are influenced by all previous factors and have interaction.This way, it can be said that most policies and decisions of the country are results of structural relationships mentioned here.
According to general classification of various policy making models, the structural model obtained is more converged to the groups based on "decision making manner" than "decision maker" and considering the leveling performed in this model, most convergence is observed with rational model (range of rational to satisfactory models) and system model (due to focus on environmental factors).

Figure
Figure 1.Ext Figure

X
: mutual relationship.O: no influence.

Figure 8 .
Figure 8. Combined model of factors influential in Iran's policy making M ).