The Economic Impact of Climate Change on the Agricultural System in Fiji

Climate change is one of the most crucial challenges identified in this century for the Pacific Region, such as Fiji, Samoa, Solomon Islands and many more. Citizens of Fiji have gone through peculiarly climatic and weather conditions over the past years like globalization, which had led to many consequences, especially in the agricultural sector which is the main income of many livelihoods not only in Fiji but in other Pacific countries as well. Climatic conditions have been changing adversely from past decades, such as temperature, rise in the sea level, precipitation changes, atmospheric composition changes, flooding, and tropical cyclones. These changes have led to alterations in the environment, thus, affecting crop and livestock production in the agricultural system. For instance, crops that require specific soil and temperature situations are vastly influenced when the temperature level changes suddenly, making the crops vulnerable to adapt to the alterations and therefore, the crops eventually die. Likewise, animal species also get affected by temperature changes, such as heat stress which specifically affects the fertility of male and female livestock. Due to these events, Fiji’s economies have also been affected since agriculture plays a vital role in boosting our economy through local market sales and exporting. Thereby, this review illustrates the impacts of climate change and ways to move forward/ solutions, for example, FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) and Pacific Islands Climate Change Assistance Program (PICCAP) have supported Fiji in bringing adaptation programs for preparing farmers and all other individuals on the upcoming climatic conditions such as adapting tolerant crops that can handle droughts and other adverse weather conditions.


Introduction
Small island countries like Fiji are highly vulnerable to climatic changes and rise in the sea level due to small landmasses, surrounded by the ocean. Similarly, their locations make them prone to natural disasters. However, Fiji Islands in the Pacific region is located where the climatic conditions are affected and influenced by several factors, like paired Hadley cells, regimes of the trade wind and walker circulation, which varies convergency zones such as the zonal westerlies to the South, semi-permanent subtropical high-pressure belts and the El Niño Southern Oscillation as the central mode of variability year to year (Folland et al., 2002;Griffiths et al., 2003). actions in implementing strategies for sea-level and climatic change adaptations. The Pacific Islands Climatic Change Assistance Program (PICCAP) of the South Pacific Regional Environment Program (SPREP) has been supporting Fiji's contribution to fulfilling the demands of the National Communication, through the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) funding. This requirement and work have been extended so that most adaptations and assessments could be done for Fiji to date (Gavin Kenny et al., 1999).
Thus, these changes and strategies were implemented regarding improving the sudden climatic actions, leading to a better and productive Fiji in terms of economic, tourism and most importantly agricultural growth. This report will illustrate the impacts, challenges and solutions for climatic conditions that affect the agricultural system economically.

What Are the Impacts and Consequences of Climate Change on the Agriculture Sector?
The major contribution to Fiji's GDP and economy has been through our agricultural sector; however, it is also susceptible to changes in the climatic conditions regarding its production capability and capacity. The El Nino drought in 1997-1998 showed the worst climatic change for the agricultural system, such as subsistence agriculture in the Western Division and the sugar industry being harshly affected. Due to this loss, the government had to provide external aid and assistance that were required to facilitate recovery procedures in the worst parts of Fiji that were affected by this drought, which included Northern, Western and Outer Islands (Jone Feresi et al., 2000).
According to (FAO, 2007), the agricultural system including croplands, forests and pastures engross about sixty per cent of the earth's surface and these systems are being gradually exposed to risks, such as increased variability of climate, thus, this leads to abnormal air temperature and rainfall changes which increase intensity and frequency of drought and flood events. There was a thorough study carried out by FAO in 2007; 'ASSESSMENT OFTHE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY: A CASE STUDY IN VANUATU' in which the climatic conditions were predicted for the years 2050 and 2100, stating an increase in the temperature and sea-level. The tables below show the figures predicted by SCENGEN generator for Vanuatu.  The above Tables 1 and 2 were compared with analogue predictions which were based on past trend observations (FAO, 2007). These scenarios were predicted to know the consequences of climate changes on the agriculture in the upcoming years to suppress the impacts of climatic changes on the agricultural system in Vanuatu and other parts of Fiji, giving an uprise to agriculture growth.
Numerous studies were conducted to assess the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural production (FAO, 2008;Rosegrant et al., 2008;Lobell et al., 2011;Thornton & Cramer, 2012). According to Thornton and Cramer (2012), conducted projections were for the productivity of the crops to slightly up-rise at mid-high  On the other hand, economic damage concepts illustrate more of a stock concept. For example, coastal infrastructure damages correspond to harming inventory of the assets and buildings that might be expected to cross the spend value on infrastructure. Adding on, the damage categories show various goods and services that are not being exchanged in the economic marketplace. Thus, the ability of damages exceeding the GDP amount is not necessarily an indication that the estimates are distorted. The comparison demonstrates that the climate change damages can be considered as a considered burden on the people of Fiji and its economy (Neil de Wet et al., 2000).

Effects of Climate Change on Selected Crop Production
According to Barnett and Campbell (2010), crop productivity in the Pacific is estimated to be impacted by global warming negatively. The rate and timing of physiological development can also change due to an increase in the temperature level, which can result in early maturity of the fruits and declined biomass yield and cumulus (Brown & Rosenberg, 1999;Challinor et al., 2004;Meza et al., 2008). Adding on, tropical cyclones are also a major contribution of climate change effects whereby, they can devastate crops, orchards, vegetation, and livestock. Likewise, cyclones can also cause infrastructure damage like canals, tanks, and wells, hence, causing loss of soil fertility from salinity infringement on a long-term basis (Sivakumar, 2005).
Drought causing low-moisture conditions and dry winds can affect higher yield losses. Similarly, climate change also affects the occurrence, development and spreading of pests and diseases in the environment (Zhao et al., 2005). The coastal lands might also be overwhelmed which can cause agricultural area losses, whereas a rise in the sea level and alterations in the storm patterns can lead to freshwater salinization, which may be needed for crop plantation (Terry & Chui, 2012). Yet, abiotic stress can also be alleviated by the effect of carbon-dioxide fertilization, which can eventually increase the photosynthesis rate, accumulation of biomass and yield. However, the degree remains unclear to which this effect could be expected (Ainsworth & Long, 2005). In that way, all the above facts determine how climate change can vastly affect the production of selected crops. For instance, if a crop is selected according to the temperature and area with availability of water resources, changes in the climatic conditions like temperature increase or decrease can highly lead to a vast loss in the production of that selected crop and thus, the profitability will also be reduced.

What are the causes of Climate Change?
Speelman (2009) suggested that either natural processes or human-induced performances can both change climatic conditions in the ecosystem. However, scientific consensus depicts that man-caused actions are more effective and irreversible on climatic changes than natural processes (United States Research Council, 2007).

Human Causes
Combustion of fossil fuels emits carbon dioxide which leads to ozone depletion, thus, boosts global warming. Some other factors involve burning of bushes, emissions of smoke from industrial plants, waste (refuse) releasing methane gas, chemical processes, fission and fusion of nucleus, and mining.

Challenges Faced by Farmers
The impact of climate change has been felt by many farmers in Fiji, especially those who perform the traditional way of farming. Fiji has also experienced a shift from normal conditions in the weather, which is, seasonal changes, that happen rapidly over time. For instance, during the wet season (Nov-April), the weather becomes hotter and drier and even now, the dry season lasts longer than its normal period which shows the effect of droughts. However, some areas in Fiji experience more rainfall during the dry season, whereby, it causes heavy rainfall to appear in a short period leading to extreme flooding. Thus, these events affect the plantation and productivity of the crops in which farmers experience sudden changes in the weather, and many crops require specific weather conditions (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, 2011).
The local farmers in Fiji have experienced temperature changes in the environment, whereby, the temperature increases and becomes very hot during the daytime while colder during the night. Too much heat restricts their daily activities and thus, farmers have to work very early in the morning and afternoon to prevent themselves from extreme heat and cold. Fiji, during the year 2014, went through a heavy drought condition that affected many farmers/growers. At this point, many of the root crops were affected since the soil was very dry and had less moisture content. Therefore, this led to an increase in the market price of some commodities since producers and suppliers were unable to meet the market demands (Paeniu, 2015). Not only has this, but drought weather conditions also lead to a shortage of water supplies and the farmers significantly had to depend on government assistance.
In terms of flooding issues, many farmers in Fiji had to move to higher ground or inland areas to continue their farming business. These decisions were very difficult for the farmers since finding land to live in and then doing farming is a whole new process for them and most growers in Fiji do not possess that much cash, so they can easily move from one place to another. Therefore, whenever a flood occurs, the most affected people are agricultural farmers.

How Does Climate Change Affect Industry?
Dietz and Stern (2014), Moyer et al. (2014), andMoore et al. (2016) gave justifications that a relationship exists between technology, industrial progress and the climatic changes that are happening around the Pacific region. (Dell, Jones and Olken, 2014), also proved the relationship between economic growth and climate change using econometrics methods. Acemoglu et al. (2001) states that the impact of institutions clears off the negative effects of climate change on development. Sevilla et al. (2003) used an equilibrium model to find limited effects of climate change on past rates of growth. Statistics derived from International Energy Agency in 2013 shows that there has been an increase in the temperatures and CO 2 gases, which can eventually affect the industrial sector.
Flooding and cyclones play a major role in the disruption of industries and the tourism sector as well. These events devastate many industrial buildings and shops as well as hotels, which later leads the businesses to a whole maintenance process to revive from the losses being done (Anthoff et al., 2006). Likewise, the industries and tourism sector also had to go through increased insurance costs. Similarly, food, energy and water resources are all at risk because of environmental and human causes, whereby, the consumer industries report the greatest impact due to these causes.
PICCAP community also provides funding to stimulate vulnerability assessments, that is; GHG (greenhouse gas) emission report; a moderation workshop; building of international negotiations and awareness programs that will involve the government and many other community sectors (Asian Development Bank, 2005).
Countries in the Pacific including Fiji supported By FAO (FAO, 1999) came up with approaches for adaptative measurements in the agricultural sector for developing schemes against climatic changes. This approach suggested by FAO is to emphasize "Research and Extension of Flexible Farming Systems that will be Tolerant to Climatic Stress and Variability" (FAO, 1999). Systems like this should be part of a comprehensive and interspersed approach, which will obtain various and multiple inter-dependencies, that is, between the water and land resources, coastal areas, and the interaction of humans with these resources. However, these strategies must be rational with national terms and policies, especially those strategies which involve environmental management and community participation.
The strategies placed by FAO for Fiji were as follows: (1) Establishing Commodity Development Framework (CDF) which will aim to boost the economic growth of subsistence communities in Fiji.
(2) Prepare a policy for draft land use in Fiji, which will include suggestions and recommendations aimed at imperishable management of the land resources in Fiji.
(3) Merging of research and extension divisions will help and provide better opportunities for research in the farming system.
(4) CDF program introduced in Land-use Planning Section to derive sustainable practices for land use, specifically in sloping land areas that are prone to erosion.
(5) Establishing a Geographical Information System, within the planning section of the Land-use Program, aiming to provide correct information on crops that would suit which type of soil and climatic conditions.
The strategies mentioned above could be enhanced furtherly by putting a much stronger emphasis on decreasing the effects of extreme climatic changes. The 1997/1998 El Nino drought has created a high awareness of putting these strategies into action (FAO, 1999). Likewise, the communities are encouraged to make decisions and choices that will be for the betterment of their livelihoods. However, this brings multiple challenges, since different commodities possess different perceptions and give various feedbacks regarding the climatic changes that are happening. Not only this, but communities also give information on old risks, for instance, poverty, development, and environmental degradation, thus, increasing the difficulties in providing them with more extension and research services (Heltberg et al., 2012) There have been many indications suggesting that there are groundwater reserves in the west. However, the benefits of getting water from these reserves should meet the costs of irrigation scheme establishment. Adding on, possibilities of reduced income return from crop productions has become a need that needs to be considered. Better land areas that are suitable for selected crops could help in obtaining higher-value crops like sugarcane and root crops (dalo, cassava). This situation is still being accessed due to uncertainty over land leases, (Campbell, 1985).
Due to a possibility in El Nino Drought striking again in Fiji and damaging not only root crops but other vegetations as well, higher, and better adaptation capabilities have been considered for crops, whereby, land management strategies will be developed to put accurate costs for drought proofed selected crops. Thus, this will help in growing plants that are more tolerant to drought events happening in Fiji, which will eventually lead to a vast increment in the agricultural sector as a whole, (Krishna, 1981).
In this manner, it is a need to implement strategies on extreme climatic conditions that are changing rapidly, so that Fiji's agricultural sector including crops and livestock as well as industrial and tourism sectors could be protected from the upcoming climatic changes.

Conclusion
This review indicates that climatic changes have been affecting our agricultural sector, industrialism, and the economy. Many Fijians around the country are still struggling with the impacts of climate changes like TC Winston. Since Fiji is still a developing country, it becomes very difficult for the government assistance to provide full support for all the farmers in Fiji because they had to make decisions upon their economic budget. Therefore, several farmers are still facing challenges in their crop productions whereby, they are not able to get enough resources and knowledge on how to adapt to these climatic changes.
However, with the help of FAO and PICCAP, Fiji was able to adapt to relevant programs that could help the farmers and other individuals in adapting to changes in climatic conditions, for instance, providing and educating farmers through research and extension programs, so that farmers can determine the sudden changes in the weather and can make advance plans on their farming system. This will eventually lead to higher farming production and profitability. Not only this but the programs being adapted could also help in the utilization of scarce land resources available to the farmers, thus, empowering their abilities to overcome the challenges of climate change in the upcoming years. Research and Extension programs have also become lit in terms of educating and empowering growers to adapt to a new style of farming systems which will eventually assist in adapting to climatic changes.