The Scenarios of Educational Administration of Secondary Schools in Thailand During the Next Decade (A.D. 2022-2031)

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Introduction
The role of the Ministry of Education under the 20-year national strategy is to achieve the country's development goals, namely The nation's stability, The people are happy and The economy continues to develop, Society fair, and create a sustainable natural resource base we must focus on both long-term and medium-term development processes, especially "learner development" to prepare ourselves for the changes in the 21st-century world which focuses on learning and building skills environmental factors contributing to the development of learners of all ages to be Thai people with desirable characteristics, Therefore, it is an important trend of social change that occurs in the 21st century, The Educational Management of Thailand must shift from focusing on knowledge came to focus on the thinking process of the learners and one of the skills that have been addressed in the development of learners' thinking processes is the skills required by the 21st-century approach to development (Office of the secretariat of national strategies, 2018) Various situations That affect the administration of secondary school education, since the change of technology, change in human behavior, political change, change in consumer behavior, displacement of business models, disruption, International trade wars, and higher competition in every aspect Including the situation of the coronavirus (COVID-19) make the leaders of the organization who will have to make decisions and ready to deal with various situations according to each model and each situation has variables (Factors/Drivers), effects and ways to solve problems that are not the same.However, many organizations have found that the VUCA concept is insufficient to deal with many phenomena that occur, VUCA can no longer explain or predict what happened Therefore, thinkers and administrators from many circles have adopted the concept of BANI as a concept or model in the post-Covid era (Mitzkus, 2022).Therefore, the BANI world is more than just a description of the physical world like VUCA, it helps administrators see what affects the emotions of people as well, whether it is depression, stress, anxiety, or confusion, which will help administrators see an overview of all aspects of education management in the education industry as well because everyone is focused on the aimed at the subject of education especially the education administration in secondary schools which can be regarded Since the level of education management must be prepared to meet the needs of the market, economic needs, the need for manpower in the country's development, as in the past the management of Thai education has responded to learning with the knowledge that has changed very little which inconsistent with the current situation (Samkoset, 2022) The researcher, as a school administrator in a secondary school, views that Thai education should be changed to correspond with current and future events to see the scenarios of educational administration of secondary schools in Thailand during the next decade (A.D. 2022-2031) Therefore, the researcher is interested in studying this research.

Research Objectives
1) To study the current state and problems of educational administration of secondary schools in Thailand.
2) To study the scenarios of educational administration of secondary schools in Thailand during the next decade (A.D. 2022-2031)..D. 2022-2031) which the researcher studied the following information: 1) Concepts and theories of educational administration 2) Principles of secondary education administration 3) Related research 4) Future research through EDFR technique (Poolpatcheewin, 2009) 5)

Scope of Research
The future of secondary school education administrators in the next decade.
3) Scope of research time, the researcher spent time conducting research on the scenarios of educational administration of secondary schools in Thailand during the next decade (A.D. 2022-2031) between January 2021 and February 2023.

Research Methodology
In this research, the researcher conducted as follows.Write scenarios, and possible trends of educational administration of the secondary school in Thailand during the next decade (A.D. 2022-2031) (Textor, 1995).

The Survey Form of Current Conditions and Problems
This survey was used to explore the current state and problems of the educational administration of secondary schools in Thailand.This survey was used with 350 school administrators out of a total of 2,360 school administrators using a purposive method.

Semi-Structured Interview Form
This semi-structured interview form was used to interview 21 experts in the second phase of the research to collect opinions on the scenarios of educational administration of secondary schools in Thailand.

Questionnaire for Delphi Round 1
The questionnaire for the Delphi Round 1 was used to conduct the third phase of the research for the survey about the opinions of 21 experts (former cohort) who were asked to allow experts to express their opinions on the appropriateness of the probabilistic sketches of the scenarios of educational administration of the secondary school in Thailand during the next decade (A.D. 2022-2031).

Questionnaire for Delphi Round 2
The Delphi Phase 2 questionnaire was used to conduct a Phase 4 study asking the opinions of 21 experts (same cohort) to ascertain possible trends of educational administration of the secondary school in Thailand during the next decade (A.D. 2022-2031)

Results
Education for the scenarios of educational administration of secondary schools in Thailand during the next decade (A.D. 2022-2031) using the following EDFR research techniques: I) The current state of educational administration of secondary schools in Thailand was generally practiced overall at a high level when considering each aspect, eight aspects were practiced at a high level, namely 1) Planning and quality assurance.2) Academic work 3) Student affairs 4) Personnel 5) Administrative work 6) Finance and supplies 7) Building and environment services and 8) Community and affiliate networks.As for the educational administration problems in Thai secondary schools, the overall performance was at a low level when considering each aspect, there were eight aspects of performance at a low level, namely 1) Planning and quality assurance 2) Academic affairs 3) student affairs, 4) Human resources, 5) Administrative work, 6) Finance and supplies, 7) Building and environment services, and 8) Community and affiliate networks.
II) The scenarios of educational administration of the secondary school in Thailand during the next decade (A.D. 2022-2031) there are 49 possible trends as follows: 1) 7 trends in planning and quality assurance work, which are the trends that experts confirm that have the highest probability of occurring, 5 of which are: have a large digital information database, using digital technology, systematic, clear, concrete, flexible, emphasizing participation, consistent with the strategic plan consistent with changes in context/situation and it is a trend that experts confirm that there is a chance to occur at a high level that there are 2 items are independent in management, modify the system and change the evaluation form.2) Academic affairs have 11 trends are trends that experts confirm that 8 trends have the highest probability of occurrence, namely, using the curriculum according to the context of each area, emphasizing student competency, evaluating results according to real conditions, variety, using more technology, learners can choose to study according to their aptitudes and interests, administrators are clear in practice, have a mentoring team (Coaching), focusing on foreign language skills and it is a trend that experts confirm that there is a high probability of occurring in 3 trends: preparing for every situation, adjusting the structure of academic work, reducing/adding study subjects, and focusing on teaching and learning vocational skills.3) Student affairs that there are 8 trends, It is a trend that experts confirm that there is the highest likelihood of occurring in 5 items: focusing on desirable characteristics, up-to-date situations, using digital technology, focusing on student assistance systems, developing students to express themselves creatively, and focusing on work as a team and it is a trend that gene experts confirm that there is a chance to occur at a high level which there are 3 items, namely teachers have psychology have a good attitude, develop learners in terms of morality, ethics, and community together with parents are involved.4) Personnel have 9 trends are trends that experts confirm to have the highest probability of occurring in 7 items, namely teachers and personnel, regular self-development, knowledge of digital technology, boosting morale, having specific personnel/reducing teacher workload/teachers teach, creating a network of cooperation within the organization and between organizations, have a teacher spirit/expertise in teaching in the major/have professional teachers, have teacher competencies consistent with world citizenship And it is a trend that experts confirm that there is a high probability of occurring in two terms: being a real juristic person and there are psychology teachers/guidance teachers in every school.5) Administrative work, amounting to 4 trends, is a trend that experts confirm has the highest probability of occurring in 3 trends.These include using digital technology/knowledge of digital technology, having a database system to manage all parties/having a non-complicated process system, flexible, fast, safe, having laws and regulations to support administrative work in the digital age, and it is a trend that experts confirm that there is a high probability of occurring that there are 1 trend, namely having direct administrative staff, 6) Finance and supplies have 5 items, trend, is a trend that experts confirm that has the highest probability of occurring 4 items namely using digital technology/personnel with knowledge of digital technology, having information database systems for management, having legal regulations to support procurement and finance in the digital age/having a system that is uncomplicated, flexible, fast, safe, managed by principles good governance and it is a trend that experts confirm that there is a chance to occur at a high level which there is 1 trend namely having a direct procurement/financial officer, 7) Building and environment services have 3 trends are trends that experts confirm have the highest probability of occurring in 2 trends namely being a learning center that is conducive to learning, convenient, safe, shady, and adopting digital technology.play a role Modify to match the era change according to the situation and it is a trend that experts confirm that there is a chance to happen at a high level 1 trend, which is taking into account the needs of the learners 8) 2 trends in community and affiliate networks are trends that experts confirm that have the highest probability of occurring, 2 items: in the future, there will be more diverse communities and networks.Focus on the participation of all sectors.and jointly develop educational management in all dimensions, and a variety of styles.

Discussion
Planning and Quality Assurance, should be independent in management There is a large digital information database.Implementation of plans and quality assurance must be systematic, clear, concrete, and flexible, digital technology is used to help in operations and emphasize the participation of everyone involved, the system has been modified to change the assessment format in order to be consistent with the strategic plan consistent with the change in the context/situation consistent with Makmee (2018), it was found that budget management in the future has budget management that requires development and development plans, An annual action plan in that administrators and teachers have a common vision, using information technology to help plan strategies, a SWOT analysis performed and the plan adjusted according to the context changes within ASEAN countries and world-class 2 times a year, consistent with the Office of the Education Council (2013) wrote that in terms of past education management policies, It shouldn't be a sudden change, In particular, the decentralization policy allows independent schools to be managed in a decentralized way according to the size and availability of educational institutions, consistent with Silarat et al. (2011) stated that information technology will speed up the distribution of information, there is two-way communication, planning, and quality assurance work are carried out through a computer network creating many virtual environments.
Academic Affairs, the curriculum should be applied according to the context of each area, there is preparation for every situation, emphasis on the competency of learners, there is an evaluation according to actual conditions and diverse operations require more technology, Learners can choose to study according to their aptitudes and interests.There is a restructuring of academic affairs, reducing/adding subjects, focusing on teaching and learning vocational skills, administrators are clear in their guidelines, there is a mentor team (Coaching) to give advice and advice and must focus on foreign language skills more This is in line with the 20-year national strategy in strategy 3) is a strategy related to English curriculum because they can use English skills to develop and empower the potential of people throughout their lives to support the growth of the country.Upgrading the quality of education and learning in English to have equal quality and thoroughness, including instilling in learner discipline, morality, ethics, and desirable values.Future learners are ready physically, mentally, and intellectually, and have the necessary skills in the 21st century.Learners have communication skills in English and a third language (Office of the Secretariat of National Strategies Committee, 2020), consistent with Wansorn (2020).It was found that in the future, learning is in a digital era.Therefore, we need to raise our knowledge standards to be digitally savvy and should develop a system to filter inappropriate online content with support and develop a system from the private sector with high potential, using AI as a genius teacher assistant to Help reduce the teacher's paperwork, consistent with Sriwiroj (2018), that students should be encouraged to apply knowledge in their daily lives.Teachers should organize activities that allow learners to express themselves.
in various ways and allow for diversity to meet specific abilities that each learner is different, consistent with Sitthiraj et al. (2015), stated that in the future, teaching and learning in secondary education have a way for learners to think, analyze, synthesize, that is, reduce the content.Increase time for students to have time to think, analyze, and synthesize, with the teacher as a mentor.Administrators are clear in their guidelines and have academic leadership technology and a team of mentors (Coaching) consistent with Thasai, Sakdadach, Sirisuthi, Chaiyuth, and Aksornsua (2023) it was found that Scenarios of Secondary School Management During the Digital Era in the Next Decade (2022-2031) of Teaching and learning during the digital era, there are 15 possible trends: 1) variety of online courses 2) organizing more online teaching and learning activities 3) collaborative learning between schools both inside and outside abroad 4) evaluation of learning focuses on competency 5) teaching and learning are more independent 6) accumulating learning units with a good system 7) developing more students' mental well-being 8) learning utilize a variety of tools to promote learning 9) students produce results that compete internationally 10) quality of students in diverse fields 11) teachers have essential digital capabilities 12) subjects are international and diverse 13) OBEC is required, the curriculum must be updated; 14) inter-school learning assessment, and 15) schools have Digital laboratories.
Student affairs must emphasize the desirable characteristics of the learners, operations must keep pace with modern situations and use digital technology, emphasis on the student support systems, teachers who take care of students have psychology and have a good attitude, moral and ethical learners must be more developed, develop learners to express themselves creatively, the community and the parents are involved in caring for their children, focus on students to work as a team consistent with Ovravetz (2011) states that technology can complement educational management systems to prepare students to effectively participate in today's technological environment, communicate fluently and with quality, consistent with Wannasorn (2020) found that all teachers must be able to perform their guiding duties appropriately and have guidance techniques that help inspire students and be friendly to students, there is a database of individual students to guide a sufficient and realistic database; promoting and developing a guidance system in educational institutions both vocational and life skills to create alternatives for further study and careers in fields that the students are specialized and interested in, as well as the quality of life which consistent with Tuchinda (2012).The school has created a network of cooperation in the management of education and organizing activities together linking homes, temples, and schools.Continuous coordination and use of information technology systems to store data, government coordination with educational service areas and other agencies, school districts should promote cooperation with schools, use the internet to help with coordination, there is a school coordinator who is directly responsible and follows up on work efficiently.
Personnel, teachers, and personnel develop themselves regularly and knowledge of digital technology, the management system must be a real legal entity, there is a boost in morale and encouragement, there is special personnel in front of that job, reducing the workload of teachers for allowing teachers to teach as the main ones, there must be a network of cooperation within the organization and between organizations, teachers have a teacher's spirit and expertise in the major, Teachers must be professional teachers and must have teacher competencies in line with world citizenship and there should be a psychology teacher/guidance teacher in every school, consistent with Daniels (2022) states that in promoting self-improvement of teachers, teachers should start managing the classroom issuing room rules that everyone must follow, clearly define everyone's duties and responsibilities, classroom layout and educational expectations.Developing a curriculum that learns from experience which can be handled alone, integration, and differentiation of faculties, teachers must plan lessons and strategies, teaching that will enable students to develop advanced thinking skills and can be used to solve various social problems.In term of technology skills; teachers must be up-to-date in using new technologies which consistent with Wannasorn (2020) found that, in the future, it will be learning under the digital age, so we should keep up with digital and develop a system to filter inappropriate online content with support and develop a system from the private sector with high potential, using AI as a genius teacher assistant It helps to reduce the teacher's paperwork and found that the development of the skills and abilities of the teachers who serve as guidance to be up-to-date, broad and deep knowledge, have a skill in communication and use of digital tools, guidance is a collaboration between teachers, psychologists and the Ministry of Social Development and Human Security for a broader range of problems, all teachers must be able to perform their guiding duties appropriately, there are guidance techniques that help inspire children and are child-friendly, there is a database of individual students to take advantage of the information based guidance that is sufficient and true, consistent with research by Makmee (2018) said that the recruitment and appointment of the government should be decentralized to the provinces to take care of personnel within the province, giving educational institutions the power to carry out the recruitment and appointment.The community participated in the selection of talented administrators to run the school.As for recruitment qualifications consider the potential skills and abilities in teaching and learning management and ability to use English in communication, using of technology, teamwork, and flexibility in using professional licenses, promote morale Teachers should have high professional ethics.
Administrative work should use digital technology to help.Personnel must know about digital technology.There is a database system for management.All departments/have a process system that is not complicated, flexible, fast, and safe, with direct administrative staff and there must be regulations, laws, and regulations to support administrative work in the digital age which is consistent with the research of Nuengkaew (2014) that administrative work is the heart of general administration work.Therefore, it can be regarded as a work that is important to achieve all aspects of operations to achieve the set objectives that practical guidelines namely studying the administrative work of educational institutions and regulations, laws, and practical guidelines that related to the plan, design the administrative work, reduce operational procedures for efficiency by use technology to operate as appropriate, organize responsible personnel and develop them to have the knowledge and ability to perform administrative tasks, consistent with Phukhamon (2008) found that the result of the development of the administrative system in the second cycle, the correspondence had the design of the data storage code to be a system easy to store and search, In addition, the duties and responsibilities of operators have been detailed in order to perform correctly and completely and applied by specifying clear procedures in writing which convenient to coordinate and training responsible persons to have the ability to use computer programs and use the information systematically current and easy to find.
Finance and supplies should use digital technology/personnel with knowledge of digital technology to work.
There is an information database system for management.There are procurement/financial officers who have direct expertise and legal regulations to support procurement and finance in the digital age/a system that is not complicated, flexible, fast, and safe.The management must use good governance to manage, consistent with the research of Makmee (2018) it was found that the future budget management has budget management that requires a development plan and an annual action plan that administrators and teachers have a common vision, using information technology to help plan strategies.SWOT analysis is carried out and plans are adjusted according to the changing context within ASEAN countries.and world-class 2 times a year which is consistent with the research of Sitthiraj (2015) found that guidelines for using the budget to develop the quality of education which is an important element that the government should support.Investors can be the government responsible for the development of human resources, parents, students, communities, etc.These funds are essential elements that help educators achieve their goals and should enable schools to seek and mobilize various resources to develop excellence in independent education management.Manage flexibly according to the needs and necessities of each school.
Building and environment services, should be buildings and environments that can be a source of learning that is conducive to learning, convenient, safe, shady, and must take into account the needs of the students and be sufficient.Digital technology plays a role in matching the era change according to the situation which is consistent with Wannasorn (2020) found that the development of a variety of learning resources with quality and standards that students and the public can access without limitation of time and place, creating cooperation with the community.Government and private agencies, foundations, institutions, and various organizations in society provide a variety of learning resources.Modern in line with the digital age.There is a plan to take students to study learning resources or develop learning resources systematically.Design buildings to be fully utilized for education.Encourage children to study as many learning resources as possible, especially learning resources that are close to the children.Learning resources in the community or local wisdom.Develop learning resources in schools to be sustainable, diverse, modern, interesting, attractive, and suitable for the age of the learners which is conducive to learning management, clean, safe, and truly beneficial.Encourage the use of shared learning resources, create a culture.Share and exchange learning together which is consistent with Uttho (2015), found the development of the landscape and environment to be beautiful and conducive to student-centered learning management.Education is managed according to the learning reform approach and focuses on the learner characteristics of being eager to learn both inside and outside the classroom and happy learning, For example, learning from nature, focusing on real practice from the surrounding environment.The school, therefore, has to arrange the internal environment to be a learning center that responds to the focus on the quality development of learners to be able to develop learners to have desirable characteristics.
Community work and affiliate networks, there should be a more diverse network community.Focus on the participation of all sectors and jointly develop educational management in all dimensions variety of styles consistent with Peters' (2012) concept, states that parent involvement is linked to student behavior and academic success.Parental status affects student achievement but is reflected in the stimulation and learning atmosphere of the parent's home.There is a clear link between parental cooperation and students' academic success both during and after school and students whose parents pay attention are more cooperative with the school the more students the better the school has a negative effect or only a slight problem, consistent with Wannasorn (2020) it was found that the supervision and development of learners on technology media literacy can be used correctly and maximize benefits under the basis of creating discipline for children.Teaching or instructing children and young people to use digital tools properly and appropriately.Being safe and savvy is therefore a top priority for children growing up in the digital age.Educating parents on the use of media and technology for child development from birth Due to many parents accidentally letting their children use smartphones too much, negatively affecting child development.Therefore, there should be a clear guideline on how parents should manage technology in learning for their children consistent with the research of Makmee (2018) it was found that the general administration, The Basic Education Board has the knowledge and contributes to the promotion and support of school administration and involvement with all organizations in education management.Executives choose a variety of management styles according to contexts and situations have a governance system and pursue quality by using technology and adhering to the principles of good governance.

Recommendations for Educational Institutions
Each secondary school has its own context and different environment; the factors that will affect the success of this research are different.Therefore, each secondary school needs to study and analyze its potential in each component to ensure that they are consistent and appropriate as information to determine the future image of the school itself to be appropriate consistency and opportunity continue.

Recommendations for the Office of the Basic Education Commission
The scenarios of educational administration of secondary schools in Thailand during the next decade (A.D. 2022-2031) according to this research will be valuable in improving the quality of national education management which the Office of the Basic Education Commission can analyze to formulate development strategies in all 8 areas according to 49 possible trends to have the possibility of occurring rapidly to develop Thai secondary education to progress and be competitive at the international level.

2) Phase 2
Education to shape the scenarios of educational administration of the secondary school in Thailand during the next decade (A.D. 2022-2031), this stage we outline the scenarios of educational administration of secondary schools in Thailand during the next decade (A.D. 2022-2031) by creating a semi-structured interview form and taking them to interview 21 experts and use the information obtained from the synthesis to write the scenarios of educational administration of secondary schools in Thailand during the next decade (A.D. 2022-2031).A study of the suitability and feasibility of the scenarios of educational administration of secondary schools in Thailand during the next decade (A.D. 2022-2031) (Delphi round 1).Probability estimation and consistency of the scenarios of educational administration of the secondary school in Thailand during the next decade (A.D. 2022-2031) to confirm the possible trends of the scenarios of educational administration of the secondary school in Thailand during the next decade (A.D. 2022-2031) (Delphi Round 2).