Abstract

This study aimed to project the agricultural worker population structure in Thailand to 2040. A cohort component method together with originally introduced elements were used to predict the number of total workers, agricultural workers, and non-agricultural workers by age group and sex in 2020, 2030, and 2040. Past-year data are mainly derived from national censuses. The projection results showed that the number of agricultural workers would shrink from 16.85 million to lower than 14.93 million; furthermore, at least 18.14 percent of them will be older than 60 years old. The aging problem is expected to pressure agricultural holders to rely on more machines and employees, resulting in agricultural debt per holders as much as 137 449 Baht. Thai agriculture will face serious instability if such the expensive input usage continues.

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