Forecasting Low-Cost Housing Demand in Johor Bahru, Malaysia Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)

Noor Yasmin Bt Zainun, Ismail Abdul Rahman, Mahroo Eftekhari

Abstract


There is a need to fully appreciate the legacy of Malaysia urbanization on aordable housing since the proportions of
urban population to total population in Malaysia are expected to increase up to 70% in year 2020. This study focused
in Johor Bahru, Malaysia one of the highest urbanized state in the country. Monthly time-series data have been used
to forecast the demand on low-cost housing using Artificial Neural Networks approach. The dependent indicator is the
low-cost housing demand and nine independents indicators including; population growth; birth rate; mortality baby rate;
inflation rate; income rate; housing stock; GDP rate; unemployment rate and poverty rate. Principal Component Analysis
has been adopted to analyze the data using SPSS package. The results show that the best Neural Network is 2-22-1 with
0.5 learning rate and momentum rate respectively. Validation between actual and forecasted data show only 16.44% of
MAPE value. Therefore Neural Network is capable to forecast low-cost housing demand in Johor Bahru, Malaysia.


Full Text: PDF DOI: 10.5539/jmr.v2n1p14

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Journal of Mathematics Research   ISSN 1916-9795 (Print)   ISSN 1916-9809 (Online)

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