The Analysis and Predictions of Agricultural Drought Trend in Guangdong Province Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition

Zhiqing Zheng, Jiusheng Fan, Huiping Liu, Dang Zeng

Abstract


This paper utilizes the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) to carry on the analysis and the predictions of the
agriculture drought trend in Guangdong Province, trying to provide a reference for predictions and forecasting of
the agricultural drought trend. After decomposing the anomaly signals of precipitation and undulating signals of
agriculture drought condition, four IMF components were obtained respectively. According to Guangdong’s
practical situations, the four components can be interpreted to be four fluctuating cycles: light-disaster, medium
disaster, heavy disaster, mega disaster. Their quasi-periods are: Light disaster for three years, medium disaster for
5-7 years, heavy disaster for 13-15 years and 26-28 years for mega disaster. To predict the next few years of
drought in Guangdong province by the change cycles of medium disaster, heavy disaster and mega disaster, the
results are as follows: medium disaster will happen between 2009 and 2011 and probably in 2010; heavy disaster
will happen between 2017 and 2019 and probably in 2018; mega disaster will happen between 2030 and 2032,
and probably in 2031.

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Journal of Agricultural Science ISSN 1916-9752 (Print) ISSN 1916-9760 (Online)

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