A Family of Stochastic Unit GARCH Models

Dobdinga Cletus Fonchamnyo


A class of Asymmetric GARCH models  is presented. It shares the same unconditional variance and volatility forecast formula as the standard GARCH(P,Q) model under the assumption of a symmetric conditional distribution for innovations. use three models of this class to assess their ability to forecast S&P 500 market volatility and to make better decisions for the purpose of risk management and investment. Subsequently, a comparison is made with respect to competing models (GARCH, EGARCH, GJR). It was found that for the in-sample evaluation, the best model is obtained from the Stochastic Unit GARCH (SUGARCH) model where leverage effects are introduced through the GARCH (i.e) parameter. For the out-of-sample evaluation (QLIKE loss function), it is better to use the SUGARCH class where the asymmetry appears on the ARCH (i.e ) parameter.

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v5n1p166

International Journal of Economics and Finance  ISSN  1916-971X (Print) ISSN  1916-9728 (Online)

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