Non-linear Growth Impacts of Financial Development in Euro Area
- Maher Asal
Using GMM model and data from 11 Euro Area countries and 5 non-Euro countries over the period 1989 to 2011, we explore the nonlinear effects of financial development on the performance of Euro Area economy that is: its growth, capital accumulation, investment and productivity. Four measures of financial developments are examined, namely, liquidity, size, volatility and bank’s loans to private enterprises. Special consideration is devoted to modeling threshold effects of public debt that has increased substantially in recent years in several Euro countries. We found that the effect of stock market size is always positive whether we consider the level of real per capita income or its growth. However, the effect of banking sector, volatility, liquidity and public debt are generally negative. In addition, we find support for the channels of investment, saving, total factor productivity, and capital intensity. For all the four channels, the results indicate a significant negative link between banking development and volatility of stock returns. The impact of debt on growth seems to be negative with the turning point of public debt likely to be between 45-65%.
- Michael ZhangEditorial Assistant